The Atlanta Braves are on a roll, riding a six-game winning streak into their upcoming match against the Miami Marlins. With Bryce Elder taking the mound, the Braves are hoping to secure their seventh victory in a row. Elder, who has had his fair share of ups and downs this season, has maintained an ERA of 3.84, leading the team in innings pitched with 119.2. His performance has been a surprise to many, and his recent start against the Marlins in April was particularly impressive, as he gave up zero earned runs on four hits in 5.2 innings while striking out seven and walking only two. However, since the start of July, Elder's FIP has been 7.14, and his K/BB ratio has been a mere 1.8, indicating that he has been lucky rather than dominant. His BABIP of .263 is well below his career average, suggesting that his on-field results have been aided by a bit of good fortune. Despite this, if he can maintain his current ERA, which seems unlikely, Braves fans will be happy. The Marlins' ace, Eury Pérez, has been a bright spot for his team, ending a twelve-game losing streak on July 26th and winning six of eight games since. Pérez has pitched the most innings in a season of his career with 104.2 and has a 3.44 ERA, 1.099 WHIP, and strikes out 9.6 per nine innings. His xERA of 3.83 and a BABIP of .248 suggest that he has been a bit lucky, but his expected batting average against him of .211 ranks him in the top 17.0 percent of qualified pitchers. Pérez's 4-seam fastball has a Run Value of five, and the Braves struggle against it, with five qualified hitters having a negative run value on the pitch. However, when the Braves faced Pérez in April, they tagged him for three earned runs in 4.0 innings. The Braves' offense has been impressive, with Baldwin, Acuña, Albies, Harris, Olson, and Riley all performing well against Pérez. The Marlins, on the other hand, have been struggling, scoring the fewest runs in the MLB since the All-Star break. The game will likely come down to the performance of the offenses, with the Braves' recent success and the Marlins' struggles suggesting that the Braves may have the edge. However, nothing is ever guaranteed in baseball, and the outcome will depend on how the players perform on the day.
